RESTORING THE ART OF COMPROMISE

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The Return of Nate Silver – Tyler’s AM Reads – December 18, 2012

In Tyler on December 18, 2012 at 8:00 am

Nate Silver writes about guns. He says:

More elaborate data-mining techniques, such as logistic regression analysis, suggest that gun ownership is a more powerful predictor of whether a voter is Republican than her gender, whether or not she identifies as gay or lesbian, whether she is Hispanic, or whether she lives in the South, along with many other demographic characteristics

Fed Policy Announced – Tyler’s AM Reads – December 13, 2012

In Tyler on December 13, 2012 at 8:00 am

Scott Sumner reacts to the Fed policy announcement.

Adam Ozimek ponder right-to-work.

Timothy Taylor dissects manufacturing productivity.

Fish on Education

In Tyler on December 11, 2012 at 11:00 am

Stanley Fish writes about higher education:

The tension between a market model and a Socratic model was nicely captured by two statements Spar made in succession. The first warmed my heart: “We want to teach students things they don’t want to know.” That is, rather than regarding students as consumers (all the rage these days in places like England and Texas), we should regard them as yet-to-be-formed intellects who are often best served by saying no to their desires — as we have traditionally. But then Spar immediately added, “Yet, we can’t be too removed from the marketplace.”

 

Social Science Highlights – Tyler’s AM Reads – December 11, 2012

In Tyler on December 11, 2012 at 8:00 am

David Brooks highlights recent social science findings.

The New York Times outlines some new taxes associated with the ACA.

Adam Ozimek wonders what Paul Krugman thinks about open borders.

A quick note on spending and growth

In Tyler on December 10, 2012 at 11:00 am

The graph below has been making its rounds (see this post by Tyler Cowen for several links).  -1Upon first glance it appears to refute any sort of fiscal approach to restoring GDP.  The red (GDP) line is table although the blue (government spending) line decreases.  However the key here is noting that this graph actually shows continued growth in GDP once government spending has hit a relatively stable level.  It becomes much more clear in the graph below that I put together (note red now represents government spending and blue represent GDP).

fredgraph

Obviously this leaves out many other factors that I would consider relevant to the NGDP recovery (tax stimulus, low interest rates, right-sized asset prices, low steady inflation, etc.), but it at least gives an accurate depiction of the spending-growth pattern that emerged after the recession.

Other Impacts of the Recession – Tyler’s AM Reads – December 10, 2012

In Tyler on December 10, 2012 at 8:00 am

Robert Samuelson considers some cultural impacts of the recession.

Paul Krugman writes about labor.

The Economist considers labor migration and climate change.

Hope in Housing – Tyler’s AM Reads – December 5, 2012

In Tyler on December 5, 2012 at 8:00 am

The Economist looks at the shift to investment in housing.

Henry Paulson writes on Chinese urbanization.

Bryan Caplan responds to Ross Douthat on birth rates.

Krugman on Medicare costs

In Tyler on December 4, 2012 at 2:00 pm

I think he oversimplifies a little when he says:

And the truth is that we know a lot about how to do that — after all, every other advanced country has much lower health costs than we do, and even within the US, the VHA and even Medicaid are much better at controlling costs than Medicare, and even more so relative to private insurance.

The key is having a health insurance system that can say no — no, we won’t pay premium prices for drugs that are little if any better, we won’t pay for medical procedures that yield little or no benefit.

Though the truth is most policy questions have elegantly simple solutions that no one likes.

Good point by Sumner

In Tyler on December 4, 2012 at 11:00 am

He writes:

This is similar to a mistake many commenters make, wanting to distinguish between cash injected into the “real economy” and cash injected into financial markets.  Cash doesn’t go into markets at all, it goes into the pockets of people and businesses.  There is no meaningful distinction between cash going into the “real economy” and the “nominal economy.”  If the Fed buys a bond from a dealer, he’ll quickly deposit the funds in the bank.  If the Fed injects cash by paying Federal salaries in cash, the workers will quickly deposit the cash into banks.  Over time the demand for cash will rise as NGDP rises.  I suppose one could distinguish between cash boosting RGDP and cash boosting NGDP but not boosting RGDP.  But then commenters would want to talk about the slope of the SRAS curve, not who gets the money.  Or you could talk about cash injections failing to boost NGDP, because the extra money is hoarded.  Yes, but once again that depends on factors that have nothing to do with who gets the money, as long as we assume fiscal policy is unaffected.

Genetic Cosmology – Tyler’s AM Reads – December 4, 2012

In Tyler on December 4, 2012 at 8:00 am

The Washington Post reports on cosmologists’ use of DNA to find dark matter.

Catherine Rampell writes about jobs that suddenly require college degrees.

Alex Tabarrok criticizes government behavior around paying back poker players.

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